FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 04 September 2026
Genoa 1–4 ComoMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 77%. Bawler had Genoa at 23%, the draw at 27% and Como at 50%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Genoa win
23%
Draw
27%
Como win
50%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.6
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Como or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Como's Champions League defense puts pressure on a Genoa side with nothing at stake, yet the expected-goals gap (0.63 in Como's favor) and shooting volume forecast Over 1.5 Goals at 74% as the high-confidence call."