FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Germany 0–1 GreeceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Germany
0–1
Greece win
Greece

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Germany to win at 86%. Bawler had Germany at 86%, the draw at 10% and Greece at 4%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Germany win
86%
Draw
10%
Greece win
4%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.1 – 0.6
Total 3.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Germany to win
Pre-match: 86%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Germany's home dominance is the clear forecast here, with a 2.59 expected-goals advantage and 87% win probability driving a convincing Home Win prediction backed by Wirtz and Musiala's combined offensive threat."

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