World: World CupSaturday 20 Jun, 20:00 UTC

Germany vIvory Coast

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.78 goals expected
Germany 49%Draw 30%Ivory Coast 21%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 75% because Germany's 1.71 xG dwarfs Ivory Coast's 1.07, and Wirtz's creative output (22% of team xG) ensures attacking pressure the visitors' defence cannot match.

How we get there
GermanystepIvory Coast
1.71Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.71Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.07
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Germany or draw
64%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ivory Coast average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Florian Wirtz
Germany · Liverpool
42%
To score
Jamal Musiala
Germany · Bayern Munich
40%
To score
Kai Havertz
Germany · Arsenal
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Germany vs Ivory Coast — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Germany and Ivory Coast — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Germany 49% · draw 30% · Ivory Coast 21%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Germany 21 Ivory Coast
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.