Germany vIvory Coast
Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 75% because Germany's 1.71 xG dwarfs Ivory Coast's 1.07, and Wirtz's creative output (22% of team xG) ensures attacking pressure the visitors' defence cannot match.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Ivory Coast average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Germany vs Ivory Coast — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Germany and Ivory Coast — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Germany 49% · draw 30% · Ivory Coast 21%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.