FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 07 September 2026
Getafe 1–1 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 66%. Bawler had Getafe at 36%, the draw at 31% and Celta Vigo at 34%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
36%
Draw
31%
Result
Celta Vigo win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.1
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.2.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 31%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Getafe's three-point deficit to sixth-place safety sharpens their attack at home, while Celta defend a precarious European berth—a desperation gap that projects Over 1.5 Goals at 66%, with both sides averaging 1.15 and 1.11 xG respectively."