FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Getafe 1–0 MálagaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Getafe or draw at 75%. Bawler had Getafe at 45%, the draw at 30% and Málaga at 25%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Getafe win
45%
Result
Draw
30%
Málaga win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 0.9
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Getafe or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 19%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Getafe's 0.36 expected-goals edge and 44% win probability underpin a Getafe or draw forecast at 74%, suggesting the hosts avoid defeat despite both sides' modest attacking output."