FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Gil Vicente 0–1 Académico de ViseuMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Gil Vicente or draw at 73%. Bawler had Gil Vicente at 46%, the draw at 27% and Académico de Viseu at 27%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gil Vicente win
46%
Draw
27%
Académico de Viseu win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Gil Vicente or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 74% probability, driven by Gil Vicente's 0.41 expected-goals advantage and combined attacking output of 2.62 xG."