FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Gil Vicente 1–1 MaritimoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Gil Vicente or draw at 81%. Bawler had Gil Vicente at 57%, the draw at 24% and Maritimo at 19%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gil Vicente win
57%
Draw
24%
Result
Maritimo win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Gil Vicente or draw
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Gil Vicente's 0.80 expected-goals advantage underpins the Gil Vicente or draw forecast at 80%, as the hosts' superior shot quality should secure at least a draw against Maritimo's blunt attack."