FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Hamburg SV 2–1 FC CologneMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Hamburg SV or draw at 64%. Bawler had Hamburg SV at 42%, the draw at 22% and FC Cologne at 36%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hamburg SV win
42%
Result
Draw
22%
FC Cologne win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.8
Total 3.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.8 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 89%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects as the high-confidence call at 82%, backed by nearly identical expected goal totals (Hamburg 1.58, Cologne 1.53) that suggest a competitive, open contest."