FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Heart of Midlothian 2–1 DundeeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heart of Midlothian to win at 65%. Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 65%, the draw at 21% and Dundee at 14%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heart of Midlothian win
65%
Result
Draw
21%
Dundee win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.8
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Heart of Midlothian to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Heart of Midlothian's home win forecast rests on a dominant 1.23 expected-goals advantage, with the model projecting 2.08 xG against Dundee's 0.84."