FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Heart of Midlothian 2–1 St JohnstoneMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heart of Midlothian to win at 66%. Bawler had Heart of Midlothian at 66%, the draw at 20% and St Johnstone at 14%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heart of Midlothian win
66%
Result
Draw
20%
St Johnstone win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Heart of Midlothian to win
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Heart of Midlothian's home win forecast rests on a dominant 1.27 expected-goals advantage and 66% win probability against an opponent managing just 0.90 xG."