FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Heerenveen 0–0 TelstarMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Heerenveen or draw at 75%. Bawler had Heerenveen at 52%, the draw at 23% and Telstar at 25%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Heerenveen win
52%
Draw
23%
Result
Telstar win
25%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.4
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Missed
Medium confidence
Heerenveen to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast as Heerenveen's 0.67 expected-goals advantage suggests they will dominate a low-block Telstar side short on attacking thrust."