FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Hibernian 1–3 Heart of MidlothianMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 03 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hibernian or draw at 67%. Bawler had Hibernian at 40%, the draw at 27% and Heart of Midlothian at 33%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
40%
Draw
27%
Heart of Midlothian win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% confidence because Hibernian's 1.45 xG and Heart of Midlothian's 1.29 xG combine for 2.74 total expected shots on target, pushing both sides toward multi-goal output."