FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Hibernian 2–3 KAA GentMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Hibernian or draw at 63%. Bawler had Hibernian at 37%, the draw at 26% and KAA Gent at 37%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hibernian win
37%
Draw
26%
KAA Gent win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides generate identical expected goals of 1.45 apiece, creating an evenly matched attacking dynamic where Hibernian's home advantage and KAA Gent's away threat combine for sufficient scoring potential."