Europe: Conference League - QualificationThursday 06 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Hibernian vKF Shkëndija

Most likely scoreline
20
14% of the time · 2.84 goals expected
Hibernian 71%Draw 21%KF Shkëndija 8%
Strongest call
Hibernian to win
87%

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 85% probability because Shkëndija's 0.52 xG trails Hibernian's 0.89 by 0.37, signalling a low-volume attacking matchup.

How we get there
HibernianstepKF Shkëndija
1.96Base xG · rolling 26-match0.67
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.21Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.63
Most likely outcomes
Hibernian to win
87%
Under 2.5 goals
51%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Hibernian average 5.6 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). KF Shkendija average 3.6 corners per game away from home this season (5 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
4
1
1
13
8
3
1
2
14
9
3
1
3
10
7
2
4
6
4
1
5
3
2
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Hibernian vs KF Shkëndija — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Hibernian and KF Shkëndija — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Hibernian 71% · draw 21% · KF Shkëndija 8%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Hibernian 21 KF Shkëndija
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.