FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 2–2 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Houston Dynamo FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 47%, the draw at 25% and FC Cincinnati at 28%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Houston Dynamo FC win
47%
Draw
25%
Result
FC Cincinnati win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Houston Dynamo FC or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Houston's 1.71 xG advantage and combined 3.05 total expected goals strongly favour a multi-goal outcome."