FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Houston Dynamo FC or draw at 71%. Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 45%, the draw at 26% and Real Salt Lake at 29%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Houston Dynamo FC win
45%
Result
Draw
26%
Real Salt Lake win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Houston Dynamo FC or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 77% because Houston's 0.36 expected-goals edge and combined 2.82 xG total favors an open, multi-goal contest."