FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa to win at 65%. Bawler had Hull City at 14%, the draw at 20% and Aston Villa at 65%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hull City win
14%
Draw
20%
Result
Aston Villa win
65%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.2
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Aston Villa to win
Pre-match: 65%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Hull's title bid faces a Villa side defending a Champions League spot with a 2.27 xG advantage, making an Away Win the 66% forecast."