FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF to win at 66%. Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 66%, the draw at 18% and Atlanta United FC at 16%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Inter Miami CF win
66%
Draw
18%
Result
Atlanta United FC win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 1.2
Total 3.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.2 against our forecast)
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 3.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Inter Miami CF to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Inter Miami's 1.37 expected-goals advantage and Messi's creative dominance (35% of team xG) drive a convincing Home Win forecast at 66%, with Atlanta's creator Almada unable to close a 2.58–1.22 xG gap."