FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 21 September 2026
Inter Miami CF 2–2 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 21 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Inter Miami CF or draw at 77%. Bawler had Inter Miami CF at 57%, the draw at 20% and San Diego FC at 23%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Inter Miami CF win
57%
Draw
20%
Result
San Diego FC win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.5
Total 3.9
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 90%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
San Diego FC to win
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 90% confidence because Inter Miami's 2.38 xG—anchored by creator Messi's 35% of team chances—gives them a 0.89 advantage over San Diego's 1.49."