FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Internazionale 3–2 NapoliMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Internazionale or draw at 80%. Bawler had Internazionale at 55%, the draw at 25% and Napoli at 20%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Internazionale win
55%
Result
Draw
25%
Napoli win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Internazionale or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Inter's six-point lead with eight games left gives them vastly different stakes than third-place Napoli, and their 0.84 xG advantage—anchored by Lautaro Martínez's creation of 28% of team chances—makes Internazionale or draw (80% forecast) the model's clear call."