Internazionale vs Napoli prediction — Serie A · Sat 5 Sept · 17:00 UK

Serie A · Sat 5 Sept · 17:00 UK
Internazionale 55Draw 25Napoli 20
Our call before kickoff
80%
Internazionale or draw
Landed
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–2
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
72%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
52%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
52%

How it finished

Internazionale beat Napoli 3–2. Bawler's model had Internazionale in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Internazionale had 29 shots (8 on target) to Napoli's 16 (7), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 2.3.

InternazionaleFull-time statsNapoli
63%Possession37%
3.2Expected goals (xG)2.3
29Shots16
8Shots on target7
20Shots inside box13
5Big chances3
10Corners5
6Saves5
7Fouls7
1Offsides2
1Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callInternazionale or draw 80%Internazionale won (55% called)
Total goals2.85
Both teams to score52%Yes
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 52%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

InternazionaleNapoli
1.8
Goals+0.8
1.0
12.8
Shots+4.7
8.1
4.5
On target+1.6
2.8
5.0
Corners+1.5
3.4
InternazionaleNapoli
0.5
Goals+0.1
0.4
6.0
Shots+2.3
3.7
2.0
On target+0.6
1.4
2.3
Corners+0.7
1.6
InternazionaleNapoli
1.3
Goals+0.7
0.5
6.8
Shots+2.4
4.4
2.4
On target+1.0
1.5
2.6
Corners+0.8
1.8

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Internazionale to score83%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals70%
Napoli to score63%

First half — what we expected

Internazionale
50%
to score before half-time
Napoli
45%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%

InternazionaleNapoli
6.01st-half shots3.7
2.01st-half shots on target1.4
2.31st-half corners1.6

First-half chances

65%Chance of 5+ shots32%
39%Chance of 7+ shots12%
83%Chance of 1+ shots on target70%
32%Chance of 3+ shots on target18%
86%Chance of 1+ corners74%
40%Chance of 3+ corners23%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Internazionale6.06.8
Shots · Napoli3.74.4
Shots on target · Internazionale2.02.4
Shots on target · Napoli1.41.5
Corners · Internazionale2.32.6
Corners · Napoli1.61.8
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Internazionale 0 · Draws 4 · Napoli 1
Napoli in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Jan 2026Inter 2–2 Napoli
Oct 2025Napoli 3–1 Inter
Mar 2025Napoli 1–1 Inter
Nov 2024Inter 1–1 Napoli
Mar 2024Inter 1–1 Napoli
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Internazionale vs Napoli?

Internazionale beat Napoli 3–2. Bawler's model had Internazionale in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Internazionale had 29 shots (8 on target) to Napoli's 16 (7), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 3.2 to 2.3.

What was the final score in Internazionale vs Napoli?

Internazionale 3–2 Napoli, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Internazionale 55%, the draw 25% and Napoli 20%.

What were the stats in Internazionale vs Napoli?

Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 3.2–2.3, Shots 29–16, Shots on target 8–7, Shots inside box 20–13, Big chances 5–3, Corners 10–5, Saves 6–5, Fouls 7–7, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 1–2.

Did both teams score in Internazionale vs Napoli?

Yes — both Internazionale and Napoli scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Internazionale vs Napoli right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Internazionale or draw 80%, it finished Internazionale won (55% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Internazionale form →Napoli form →