FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 14 September 2026
Internazionale 5–3 UdineseMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Internazionale to win at 67%. Bawler had Internazionale at 67%, the draw at 20% and Udinese at 13%. The match finished 5–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Internazionale win
67%
Result
Draw
20%
Udinese win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 3
Total 8 (+5.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.1 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 5.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Internazionale to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Internazionale's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.33 expected-goals advantage, with Lautaro Martínez commanding 28% of their attacking output against Udinese's limited 0.84 xG."