FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Ipswich Town 2–4 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal to win at 65%. Bawler had Ipswich Town at 13%, the draw at 22% and Arsenal at 65%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ipswich Town win
13%
Draw
22%
Arsenal win
65%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 2.0
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's Away Win forecast rests on a decisive 1.21 xG advantage, with striker Bukayo Saka commanding 14% of their attacking threat in a fixture where the visitors' 65% win probability reflects clear dominance."