World: World CupTuesday 30 Jun, 17:00 UTC

Ivory Coast vNorway

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.67 goals expected
Ivory Coast 30%Draw 32%Norway 38%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
68%

Over 2.5 Goals projects at 68% because Ivory Coast's 1.25 xG and Norway's 1.43 xG combine to favour a multi-goal affair, with Haller and Haaland driving penetration on either flank.

How we get there
Ivory CoaststepNorway
1.25Base xG · rolling 26-match1.43
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.25Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.43
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
68%
Norway or draw
59%
Over 3.5 goals
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ivory Coast average 7.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Norway average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
5
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Erling Haaland
Norway · Man City
62%
To score
Alexander Sørloth
Norway · Atletico Madrid
42%
To assist
Martin Ødegaard
Norway · Arsenal
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Ivory Coast vs Norway — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ivory Coast and Norway — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ivory Coast 30% · draw 32% · Norway 38%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ivory Coast 12 Norway
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.