World: World CupTuesday 23 Jun, 03:00 UTC

Jordan vAlgeria

Most likely scoreline
01
14% of the time · 2.24 goals expected
Jordan 25%Draw 35%Algeria 40%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
70%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 70% because Algeria's 1.27 xG plus Jordan's 0.97 creates enough attacking thrust, with Mahrez's creative pull (26% of team xG) the decisive edge.

How we get there
JordanstepAlgeria
0.97Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.97Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.27
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Algeria or draw
63%
Draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Jordan average 1.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Algeria average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11
14
9
4
1
1
10
13
8
4
1
2
5
6
4
2
1
3
2
2
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Amoura
Algeria · VfL Wolfsburg
40%
To score
Riyad Mahrez
Algeria · Al-Ahli
36%
To score
Amine Gouiri
Algeria · Marseille
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Jordan vs Algeria — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Jordan and Algeria — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Jordan 25% · draw 35% · Algeria 40%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Jordan 12 Algeria
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.