FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Juventus 5–0 NEC NijmegenMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus to win at 70%. Bawler had Juventus at 70%, the draw at 18% and NEC Nijmegen at 12%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Juventus win
70%
Result
Draw
18%
NEC Nijmegen win
12%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.0
Total 3.5
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
4.1 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Juventus to win
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Juventus's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 70%, built on a dominant 1.51 xG advantage and Vlahović's role as a striker commanding 30% of their attacking output."