FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Kauno Zalgiris 1–0 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Besiktas to win at 66%. Bawler had Kauno Zalgiris at 14%, the draw at 20% and Besiktas at 66%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kauno Zalgiris win
14%
Result
Draw
20%
Besiktas win
66%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 2.2
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Besiktas to win
Pre-match: 66%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Besiktas away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a commanding 1.29 xG advantage and 66% win probability against a Zalgiris side that projects just 0.91 expected goals."