FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Kocaelispor 1–0 SamsunsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Samsunspor or draw at 68%. Bawler had Kocaelispor at 32%, the draw at 30% and Samsunspor at 38%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Kocaelispor win
32%
Result
Draw
30%
Samsunspor win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.2
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 68%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.