FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Konyaspor 1–0 TrabzonsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Trabzonspor or draw at 64%. Bawler had Konyaspor at 36%, the draw at 26% and Trabzonspor at 38%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Konyaspor win
36%
Result
Draw
26%
Trabzonspor win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Trabzonspor 1.50—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely."