FT · Belgium: Pro League · Friday, 11 September 2026
KV Mechelen 0–1 AnderlechtMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Anderlecht or draw at 67%. Bawler had KV Mechelen at 33%, the draw at 26% and Anderlecht at 42%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
KV Mechelen win
33%
Draw
26%
Anderlecht win
42%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because both sides combine for 3.02 expected goals despite Mechelen's narrow home advantage in win probability (33% vs Anderlecht's 42%)."