FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Le Mans 2–1 LorientMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 64%. Bawler had Le Mans at 36%, the draw at 26% and Lorient at 38%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Le Mans win
36%
Result
Draw
26%
Lorient win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 77%, backed by Lorient's 0.31 xG edge and 44% win probability suggesting attacking intent will generate chances across both sides."