FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Lens 0–1 LorientMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lens to win at 60%. Bawler had Lens at 60%, the draw at 22% and Lorient at 18%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lens win
60%
Draw
22%
Lorient win
18%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lens enters with title ambitions and a 1.09 xG advantage over a Lorient side playing for nothing, making a home win the model's 62% forecast."