FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Lincoln City 1–3 PortsmouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lincoln City or draw at 71%. Bawler had Lincoln City at 43%, the draw at 28% and Portsmouth at 29%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lincoln City win
43%
Draw
28%
Portsmouth win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.