FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Lincoln City 1–1 SouthamptonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 68%. Bawler had Lincoln City at 32%, the draw at 26% and Southampton at 42%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lincoln City win
32%
Draw
26%
Result
Southampton win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lincoln's title coronation bid meets Southampton's listless finish, yet xG sits level at 1.48 apiece—making the Lincoln City or draw forecast at 61% the model's call despite the hosts' 10-point cushion."