FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lincoln City 1–2 Swansea CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lincoln City or draw at 73%. Bawler had Lincoln City at 45%, the draw at 28% and Swansea City at 27%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lincoln City win
45%
Draw
28%
Swansea City win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lincoln City or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 73% because Lincoln's 1.41 expected goals at home combines with Swansea's modest 1.17 defensive xG to suggest a low-scoring but open contest."