FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Liverpool 2–1 Atlético MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool to win at 67%. Bawler had Liverpool at 67%, the draw at 19% and Atlético Madrid at 14%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
67%
Result
Draw
19%
Atlético Madrid win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.0
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's home win is the model's 67% call, built on a decisive 1.35 xG advantage and Mohamed Salah commanding 19% of their attacking output against an Atlético side generating just 1.04 expected goals."