FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Liverpool 0–0 FulhamMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool or draw at 77%. Bawler had Liverpool at 53%, the draw at 24% and Fulham at 23%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
53%
Draw
24%
Result
Fulham win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, anchored by Liverpool's 1.81 xG advantage and Salah's 19% of team shot creation against a Fulham side managing just 1.12 expected goals."