FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Lommel SK 0–0 KV MechelenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lommel SK or draw at 74%. Bawler had Lommel SK at 47%, the draw at 27% and KV Mechelen at 26%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lommel SK win
47%
Draw
27%
Result
KV Mechelen win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Lommel SK or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lommel's marginal 1.41 xG edge and 40% win probability over Mechelen's 1.24 creates enough attacking threat for Over 1.5 Goals, which the model forecasts at 74%."