FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Lorient 2–2 ToulouseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 70%. Bawler had Lorient at 42%, the draw at 27% and Toulouse at 30%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
42%
Draw
27%
Result
Toulouse win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lorient or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lorient's 12-point xG advantage and 42% win probability make the Lorient or draw forecast (70%) the model's high-confidence call for a home side built to avoid defeat."