FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Lyon 1–1 Le Havre ACMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 82%. Bawler had Lyon at 59%, the draw at 23% and Le Havre AC at 18%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
59%
Draw
23%
Result
Le Havre AC win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lyon's European ambitions collide with Le Havre's mid-table irrelevance, and the hosts' 1.01 xG advantage underpins a commanding 60% home win forecast."