FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Mainz 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Match recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Mainz to win at 61%. Bawler had Mainz at 61%, the draw at 21% and SC Paderborn 07 at 18%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mainz win
61%
Draw
21%
Result
SC Paderborn 07 win
18%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.2 – 1.1
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 3.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mainz to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Mainz's 1.06 expected-goals advantage at home translates to a 61% win probability, making a home victory the model's high-confidence call despite Paderborn's threat."

More from Bawler