FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Málaga 1–3 VillarrealMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Villarreal or draw at 67%. Bawler had Málaga at 33%, the draw at 27% and Villarreal at 40%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Málaga win
33%
Draw
27%
Villarreal win
40%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.5
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% because combined xG of 2.82 and Villarreal's attacking thrust through Gerard Moreno create enough chances for multiple goals despite the tight 0.17 xG gap."