How it finished
Villarreal beat Málaga 3–1. Bawler's model had Villarreal in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Málaga had 5 shots (1 on target) to Villarreal's 16 (7), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Málaga vs Villarreal?
Villarreal beat Málaga 3–1. Bawler's model had Villarreal in front at 40% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 4. Málaga had 5 shots (1 on target) to Villarreal's 16 (7), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.3.
What was the final score in Málaga vs Villarreal?
Málaga 1–3 Villarreal, played on 17 Sept 2026 in the Spain: La Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Málaga 33%, the draw 27% and Villarreal 40%.
What were the stats in Málaga vs Villarreal?
Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–3.3, Shots 5–16, Shots on target 1–7, Shots inside box 4–12, Big chances 0–7, Corners 4–8, Saves 3–0, Fouls 17–10, Offsides 1–3, Yellow cards 5–1.
Did both teams score in Málaga vs Villarreal?
Yes — both Málaga and Villarreal scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Málaga vs Villarreal right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Villarreal or draw 67%, it finished Villarreal won (40% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.