FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Manchester City 5–3 SunderlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City to win at 63%. Bawler had Manchester City at 63%, the draw at 22% and Sunderland at 15%. The match finished 5–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
63%
Result
Draw
22%
Sunderland win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
5 – 3
Total 8 (+5.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 4.3
From the match itself
The match produced 5.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester City to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Manchester City's home win is the high-confidence call at 62% probability, built on a 1.09 xG advantage with Haaland accounting for 39% of their expected output against Sunderland's 0.88 xG total."