How it finished
Manchester City beat Sunderland 5–3. Bawler's model had Manchester City in front at 63% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 8. Manchester City had 16 shots (6 on target) to Sunderland's 17 (9), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 2.7 to 4.3, so Sunderland created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Manchester City vs Sunderland?
Manchester City beat Sunderland 5–3. Bawler's model had Manchester City in front at 63% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 8. Manchester City had 16 shots (6 on target) to Sunderland's 17 (9), with 55% of the ball against 45%. On expected goals it was 2.7 to 4.3, so Sunderland created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
Manchester City 5–3 Sunderland, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Manchester City 63%, the draw 22% and Sunderland 15%.
What were the stats in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 2.7–4.3, Shots 16–17, Shots on target 6–9, Shots inside box 12–14, Big chances 3–8, Corners 6–5, Saves 4–1, Fouls 14–14, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
Yes — both Manchester City and Sunderland scored, finishing 5–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Manchester City vs Sunderland right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Manchester City to win 63%, it finished Manchester City won (63% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 8; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.