FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Marseille 2–3 Paris FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Marseille or draw at 77%. Bawler had Marseille at 55%, the draw at 23% and Paris FC at 23%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Marseille win
55%
Draw
23%
Paris FC win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Marseille to win
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 40%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Marseille's Champions League chase meets a Paris FC side with nothing to fight for, and the 0.84 xG advantage fuels Over 1.5 Goals at 84% confidence—a high-volume attacking setup against a team defending without stakes."