FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

Mexico 0–2 ChileMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

Mexico
0–2
Chile win
Chile

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Mexico to win at 70%. Bawler had Mexico at 70%, the draw at 19% and Chile at 10%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mexico win
70%
Draw
19%
Chile win
10%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.2 – 0.7
Total 2.9
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mexico to win
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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