FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Mexico 1–1 PeruMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Mexico
1–1
Draw
Peru

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Mexico to win at 83%. Bawler had Mexico at 83%, the draw at 13% and Peru at 4%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Mexico win
83%
Draw
13%
Result
Peru win
4%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.7 – 0.5
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 1.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Mexico to win
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Mexico's home dominance in chance creation—a 2.15 expected-goal advantage—underpins the high-confidence Mexico Win forecast at 83%."

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