How it finished
Mexico and Peru drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Mexico at 83% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 13%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. Mexico had 9 shots (3 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.3.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 75%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Mexico vs Peru?
Mexico and Peru drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Mexico at 83% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 13%. It forecast 3.1 goals; only 2 were scored. Mexico had 9 shots (3 on target) to Peru's 5 (2), with 64% of the ball against 36%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 0.3.
What was the final score in Mexico vs Peru?
Mexico 1–1 Peru, played on 30 Sept 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Mexico 83%, the draw 13% and Peru 4%.
What were the stats in Mexico vs Peru?
Full-time: Possession 64%–36%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–0.3, Shots 9–5, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 2–2, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–4, Saves 1–3, Fouls 15–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–4.
Did both teams score in Mexico vs Peru?
Yes — both Mexico and Peru scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 35% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Mexico vs Peru right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Mexico to win 83%, it finished Draw (13% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 35%, it finished Yes.