FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Middlesbrough 2–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Middlesbrough or draw at 81%. Bawler had Middlesbrough at 50%, the draw at 31% and Lincoln City at 19%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Middlesbrough win
50%
Result
Draw
31%
Lincoln City win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 0.9
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Lincoln City or draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.